Sunday, February 15, 2009

Reading 4.3, 4.4, and 4.5

Assalamualaikum wbt…
Dear Miss Syida, how are you? Hope you are fine and have a blissful life with family and friends. In this seventh entry on this blog, I would like to give a brief summary on the ‘What is the evidence?’ chapter.


Reading 4.3 What is the evidence?

This chapter is concerned with the issue of evidence. It begins with the famous case of the kidnapping of the infant son of Charles Lindbergh and examines the evidence, the wholly circumstantial, that led to the conviction and execution of Bruno Hauptmann. The evidence presented to the jury by the prosecution when the case came to trial. The police found the $14,600 of the ransom money in his garage. And his total asset when he was arrested were about $40,000 that he cannot earn that much in the stock market.

The other evidence was the kidnapper note that written in the German origin and Bruno Hauptmann was a German immigrant in illegal way, where the Hauptmann smuggled himself into the US after breaking from the jail at the German. The writer talks about the quality of evidence in other famous cases, including historical treatment of past events. In all cases, the writer urges that a reader should continue a critical stance towards everything that is read, always asking the question ‘what is the evidence?’ before making the conclusion.

Reading 4.4 Statistic

In this chapter is concerned with the use and misuse of statistic and is intended to caution readers into a more informed response to text that link facts and figures. It begins by defining terms, mentioning a number of domains where the statistic is widely used. It goes on then to name and describe four common statistical slips that can be made. A text is then offered for reading and analysis, with the reader being asked to evaluate the deductions made within the text from the statistic used.A further exercise is offered including three tables, requiring the reader to draw well-grounded inferences from the data contained in the tables. The importance of statistic in human affair is obvious from our tendency to associate facts closely with figures.

Unqualified averages, fallacious sampling, percentages unaccompanied by actual numbers and misleading presentation is the way to guard oneself against being misled by misused statistic is not to shun or mistrust all figures but to become consciously or unconsciously.

Reading 4.5 Crooked and fallacious thinking

The two chapters argue that crooked and fallacious thinking is not only evidence of illogical mental processes and poor communication skill but is also a manipulative tool in the hands of speakers or writers wishing to influence and affect the judgments of their listeners and readers. Especially in contexts where there is an intent to persuade someone towards a particular belief or course of action, we are likely to encounter instances of crooked and fallacious thinking.

Much human misunderstanding and blunder arises because many people are not aware of the fact that their trends of thought, and thus their communication processes, are frequently muddled, illogical and fallacious. Transfer device, the common forms of fallacious and crooked thinking is the use of the transfer device. By this device, a crooked thinker transfer the prestige of something of which we approve or even respect to something which he wants us to accept. Circular argument may give the impression that he is in fact not proving anything. False analogy is used to support an argument in fact proves nothing; there is only a superficial or chance similarity.

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